---
title: "HW 8"
author: "Name here"
date: "Due November 19, 2018"
output: html_document
---

### Q1. 

For these questions, write out the differenced model and identify the structure.

#### a. (3 points)
$$x_t = x_{t-1} + w_t$$

#### b. (3 points)
$$x_t =  bt + w_t$$

### Q2. (10 points)

Fit an ARIMA model to the Lake Huron data set. Fully describe the results and detail all parameters in the model. How could this model be used to make predictions.
```{r}
library(datasets)
library(forecast)
ggtsdisplay(LakeHuron)
```

### Q3. (10 points)

Analyze the airplane data using a regression framework in `auto.arima()` to capture the trend and seasonal components. Describe all of the parameters in this model and use this model to predict the airline passengers totals for the next year.
```{r}
ggtsdisplay(AirPassengers)
```


### Q4. (536 only)

Continue working through your projects, this should be added to the existing, and growing, project document.  

- Write out the statistical model that you plan to use for your project and address the following questions.
    - Will this be more focused on explanation or prediction?
    - What criteria will you use to select a model?