Home Contents Contents


Sequences -- Population Models


You should use one of the computer algebra systems below with this module. Click on the appropriate icon for your preferred CAS and then arrange your screen so that you can easily move back-and-forth between this window and your CAS window. Click on the appropriate help button for help.

Maple worksheet Mathematica notebook TI-92 Browser Window

Help Help Help


Some of the most important problems we face involve populations -- the human populations in our cities, our countries, and our planet; and the populations of the various species of plants and animals with whom we share our world.

The populations of different species are described by different kinds of models. Some species -- for example, temperate zone insects -- have very distinct generations. Typically, the life cycle for each generation begins in the spring when the eggs hatch and it ends in the fall when the survivors lay the eggs that will become the next generation the following spring.

Because the generations are distinct, this situation is usually described by a sequence of numbers -- p(1), p(2), ... , p(n), ... -- with p(n) denoting the population of the n-th generation. For example, if we were studying the population of a species whose initial population was 10,000 and that was growing at a rate of 2% per year, we would have

 
p(1) = 10,000
p(n) = p(n - 1) + 0.02 p(n - 1) = 1.02 p(n - 1)
 

Any model, like this one, in which the population increases or decreases by a fixed percentage each year is called an exponential model and is described by a change equation of the form

p(n) = R p(n - 1)

where R is a constant. In the example above R is 1.02.

If the population is increasing then R > 1 and if it is decreasing then R < 1.

Missing Graphics


Use your CAS window to look at the following exponential models.
p(1) = 1,000
p(n) = 1.05 * p(n - 1)

p(1) = 1,000
p(n) = 1.01 * p(n - 1)

p(1) = 1,000
p(n) = 0.95 * p(n - 1)

p(1) = 1,000
p(n) = 0.99 * p(n - 1)
Describe your results. answer

Exponential models are not very useful. If R < 1 then the population will "die out" -- that is, it will decrease until it is very close to zero. If R > 1 then the population will increase without any bound. This is unrealistic since any real habitat will have only a finite supply of food, water, and other resources. Therefore, any model that predicts the population will increase without any bound is unrealistic. Finally, if R = 1 then the population will remain constant. Such a model, however, is in a very delicate balance. If R changes by the slightest amount then the model will predict declining population or increasing population without bound.


Use your CAS window to look at the following models (the same models you looked at earlier).
p(1) = 1,000
p(n) = 1.05 * p(n - 1)

p(1) = 1,000
p(n) = 1.01 * p(n - 1)

p(1) = 1,000
p(n) = 0.95 * p(n - 1)

p(1) = 1,000
p(n) = 0.99 * p(n - 1)
Suppose that these models are proposed as possible models for a species in a habitat that can support 5,000 individuals. Suppose that a species becomes "endangered" if its population falls below 50. How long will it take for each model before one of the following happens. answer

Any model in which the generations are distinct and thus can be described by a sequence of numbers is called a discrete dynamical system. Discrete dynamical systems appear deceptively simple. We will see examples whose behavior is surprizingly complex.


Check Your Understanding

  1. Find P(2), P(3), ... P(10) for the exponential model

    P(1) = 1000

    P(n+1) = 1.05 P(n)

    answer

  2. Find P(2), P(3), ... P(10) for the exponential model

    P(1) = 100

    P(n+1) = 1.10 P(n)

    answer

  3. Find P(2), P(3), ... P(10) for the exponential model

    P(1) = 500

    P(n+1) = 0.90 P(n)

    answer

  4. Find P(3), P(4), ... P(10) for the exponential model whose first two terms are

    P(1) = 1000

    P(2) = 1050

    answer

  5. Find P(3), P(4), ... P(10) for the exponential model whose first two terms are

    P(1) = 500

    P(n+1) = 450

    answer

  6. The population in North Comstock was 18,000,000 in 1995 and has been rising at the rate of 1% per year. There is enough food for 19,000,000 people in North Comstock. If the current population growth continues when will North Comstock be forced to import food?

    answer

  7. The Fly-by-Night Toxic Waste Disposal Company was caught dumping toxic waste in (formerly) Clear Lake. In 1990 immediately after the toxic waste dump the concentration of Agent Yuck was 10 ppm (parts per million). Because of the natural flow of water into and out of Clear Lake the concentration of Agent Yuck will drop by 10% each year. According to state regulations the beaches on Clear lake must be closed as long as the concentration of Agent Yuck is above 5 ppm. If the Fly-by-Night Toxic Waste Disposal Company is fined $100,000 for each year that the beaches on Clear Lake are closed, how large will the fine be?

    answer

  8. The Fly-by-Night Toxic Waste Disposal Company was caught dumping toxic waste in (formerly) Clear Lake. In 1990 immediately after the toxic waste dump the concentration of Agent Yuck was 10 ppm (parts per million). Because of the natural flow of water into and out of Clear Lake the concentration of Agent Yuck will drop by 10% each year. According to federal regulations the beaches on Clear lake must be closed as long as the concentration of Agent Yuck is above 3 ppm. If the Fly-by-Night Toxic Waste Disposal Company is fined $100,000 for each year that the beaches on Clear Lake are closed, how large will the fine be?

    answer


Stretch Your Understanding


Home Contents Contents


Copyright c 1995 by PWS Publishing Company, a division of International Thomson Publishing Inc. Comments to Frank Wattenberg, Department of Mathematics, Carroll College, Helena, MT 59625.