(*^

::[	frontEndVersion = "Macintosh Mathematica Notebook Front End Version 2.1";
	macintoshStandardFontEncoding; 
	paletteColors = 128; automaticGrouping; currentKernel; 
	fontset = title, inactive, noPageBreakBelow, nohscroll, preserveAspect, groupLikeTitle, center, M7, bold, e8,  24, "Times"; ;
	fontset = subtitle, inactive, noPageBreakBelow, nohscroll, preserveAspect, groupLikeTitle, center, M7, bold, e6,  18, "Times"; ;
	fontset = subsubtitle, inactive, noPageBreakBelow, nohscroll, preserveAspect, groupLikeTitle, center, M7, italic, e6,  14, "Times"; ;
	fontset = section, inactive, noPageBreakBelow, nohscroll, preserveAspect, groupLikeSection, grayBox, M22, bold, a20,  18, "Times"; ;
	fontset = subsection, inactive, noPageBreakBelow, nohscroll, preserveAspect, groupLikeSection, blackBox, M19, bold, a15,  14, "Times"; ;
	fontset = subsubsection, inactive, noPageBreakBelow, nohscroll, preserveAspect, groupLikeSection, whiteBox, M18, bold, a12,  12, "Times"; ;
	fontset = text, inactive, nohscroll, noKeepOnOnePage, preserveAspect, M7,  12, "Times"; ;
	fontset = smalltext, inactive, nohscroll, noKeepOnOnePage, preserveAspect, M7,  10, "Times"; ;
	fontset = input, noPageBreakInGroup, nowordwrap, preserveAspect, groupLikeInput, M42, N23, bold, L-5,  12, "Courier"; ;
	fontset = output, output, inactive, noPageBreakInGroup, nowordwrap, preserveAspect, groupLikeOutput, M42, N23, L-5,  12, "Courier"; ;
	fontset = message, inactive, noPageBreakInGroup, nowordwrap, preserveAspect, groupLikeOutput, M42, N23, R65535, L-5,  12, "Courier"; ;
	fontset = print, inactive, noPageBreakInGroup, nowordwrap, preserveAspect, groupLikeOutput, M42, N23, L-5,  12, "Courier"; ;
	fontset = info, inactive, noPageBreakInGroup, nowordwrap, preserveAspect, groupLikeOutput, M42, N23, B65535, L-5,  12, "Courier"; ;
	fontset = postscript, PostScript, formatAsPostScript, output, inactive, noPageBreakInGroup, nowordwrap, preserveAspect, groupLikeGraphics, M7, l34, w282, h287,  12, "Courier"; ;
	fontset = name, inactive, nohscroll, noKeepOnOnePage, preserveAspect, M7, italic,  10, "Geneva"; ;
	fontset = header, inactive, noKeepOnOnePage, preserveAspect, M7,  12, "Times"; ;
	fontset = leftheader, inactive, L2,  12, "Times"; ;
	fontset = footer, inactive, noKeepOnOnePage, preserveAspect, center, M7,  12, "Times"; ;
	fontset = leftfooter, inactive, L2,  12, "Times"; ;
	fontset = help, inactive, nohscroll, noKeepOnOnePage, preserveAspect, M7,  10, "Times"; ;
	fontset = clipboard, inactive, nohscroll, noKeepOnOnePage, preserveAspect, M7,  12, "Times"; ;
	fontset = completions, inactive, nohscroll, noKeepOnOnePage, preserveAspect, M7,  12, "Times"; ;
	fontset = special1, inactive, nohscroll, noKeepOnOnePage, preserveAspect, M7,  12, "Times"; ;
	fontset = special2, inactive, nohscroll, noKeepOnOnePage, preserveAspect, M7,  12, "Times"; ;
	fontset = special3, inactive, nohscroll, noKeepOnOnePage, preserveAspect, M7,  12, "Times"; ;
	fontset = special4, inactive, nohscroll, noKeepOnOnePage, preserveAspect, M7,  12, "Times"; ;
	fontset = special5, inactive, nohscroll, noKeepOnOnePage, preserveAspect, M7,  12, "Times"; ;
]
:[font = special1; inactive; preserveAspect; ]
                                              Probabilistic Models

The cell below defines and executes a procedure  Roulette[]  that simulates 100 plays of the timid strategy.  Evaluate it now.  You can use the results to answer the first question in your browser window -- how likely are you to win using the timid strategy?  You will need to modify it to answer the other questions.

;[s]
6:0,1;66,0;117,1;128,0;178,2;193,0;387,-1;
3:3,13,9,Times,0,12,0,0,0;2,13,9,Times,1,12,0,0,0;1,13,9,Times,1,12,65535,0,0;
:[font = input; preserveAspect; ]
Roulette[] :=
Block[{wins, losses, wallet},
   wins = 0;
   losses = 0;
   For[i = 1, i <= 100, i = i + 1,
       wallet = 10;
       While[(0 < wallet) && (wallet < 20),
             If[Random[] < 18/38, 
                wallet = wallet + 1,
                wallet = wallet - 1]
            ];
       If[wallet == 20, 
          wins = wins + 1, 
          losses = losses + 1]
      ];
   Print["Losses = "];
   Print[losses];
   Print["Wins   = "];
   Print[wins]
]

Roulette[]
^*)