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{SECT 0 {EXCHG {PARA 256 "" 0 "" {TEXT -1 20 "Probabilistic Models" }}
{PARA 0 "" 0 "" {TEXT -1 0 "" }}{PARA 0 "" 0 "" {TEXT -1 49 "The cell \+
below defines and executes a procedure  " }{TEXT 256 8 "roulette" }
{TEXT -1 53 "  that simulates 100 \"plays\" of the timid strategy.  " 
}{TEXT 257 14 "Execute it now" }{TEXT -1 189 ".  You can use it as is \+
to answer the first question in your browser window -- how likely are \+
you to win using the timid strategy?  You will need to modify it to an
swer the other questions." }}{PARA 0 "" 0 "" {TEXT -1 0 "" }}}{EXCHG 
{PARA 0 "> " 0 "" {MPLTEXT 1 0 777 "spinner := rand(1..38):\n\nroulett
e := proc()\n            local i, wins, losses, wallet, spin;\n       \+
     wins := 0:\n            losses := 0:\n            for i from 1 to
 100 do\n                wallet := 10;\n                while ((wallet
 < 20) and (0 < wallet)) do\n                      if (spinner() <= 18
) then\n                         wallet := wallet + 1;\n              \+
        else\n                         wallet := wallet - 1;\n        \+
              fi;\n                od;\n            if (wallet = 20) t
hen\n               wins := wins + 1;\n            else\n             \+
  losses := losses + 1;\n            fi;\n            od;\n           \+
 print(`losses = `);\n            print(losses);\n            print(`w
ins   = `);\n            print(wins);\n            end:\n\nroulette();
" }}}}{MARK "0 2 4" 189 }{VIEWOPTS 1 1 0 1 1 1803 }