EXAMPLE OF BLACKFOOT RIVER

EXTREME FLOOD EVENTS

These are the archived records of the annual peak flows (annual series) for the analysis of the extreme flood events on the Blackfoot River. The records run from 1940 to 1994. Some records that you download may include all peak flows above a certain base flow - select and use only the peak flows for each year, discarding the rest for this analysis. This analysis will concentrate on extreme flood events and their return intervals.

TABLE 1: MAXIMUM YEARLY FLOW, 1940-1996, BLACKFOOT RIVER AT BONNER, MONTANA

DATE YR.MO.DAY FLOW CUBIC FEET/SEC
1940.05.12 3800
1941.06.02 1940
1942.05.26 6900
1943.06.18 9750
1944.05.19 4280
1945.06.04 5540
1946.05.29 6540
1947.05.09 12800
1948.05.22 16300
1949.05.16 8840
1950.06.21 9400
1951.05.13 11000
1952.04.29 8820
1953.06.04 18300
1954.05.21 13300
1955.06.15 7060
1956.05.22 12100
1957.05.21 10100
1958.05.23 9110
1959.06.07 12200
1960.06.04 6880
1961.05.27 10200
1962.05.25 8790
1963.06.01 5060
1964.06.10 19200
1965.06.13 9960
1966.05.11 6420
1967.06.03 11900
1968.06.04 5960
1969.05.15 8340
1970.05.27 10900
1971.05.14 12100
1972.06.02 15700
1974.06.17 11900
1975.06.20 18100
1976.05.15 14000
1977.05.03 2190
1978.06.09 8390
1979.05.27 10800
1980.05.27 9110
1981.05.24 12400
1982.06.17 10200
1983.05.30 7760
1984.05.31 6610
1985.05.25 6590
1986.05.30 7300
1987.05.01 4850
1988.05.14 3640
1989.05.11 10300
1990.06.01 7200
1991.05.20 9290
1992.05.09 4210
1993.05.16 7300
1994.04.25 5910

Open the downloaded peak flow records in a spreadsheet. Arrange the information (as you see below) so that you have columns for date of peak discharge and for amount of discharge.

Sort the data in your spreadsheet in descending order, so that the largest annual peak flow is first and the smallest is last on your list. Insert a column numbered from 1 to however many years of record you have downloaded. This column ranks the annual peak flows from the largest (ranked 1) to the smallest. Each annual peak flow now has an "order number." Hydrologists have developed a relationship between the rank of an annual peak flood, the number of years of record available, and the return period* of a particular peak flood:

R = (n+1)/m

where "R" is the return period or recurrence interval in years, "n" is the number of years of record, and "m" is the rank of the peak flow or the order number ("m" equals 1 for the largest annual flow, and "m" equals "n" for the smallest annual flow).

Insert another column in your spreadsheet that calculates "R," the return period for each annual peak flow using this formula.

*It is important to remember that the return period is not a guarantee that a peak flow of a particular size will occur every so many years, but a statement about the probability of a peak flow of a certain size occurring in any one year.

TABLE 2: 1940-1996 - RETURN PERIOD AND MAXIMUM YEARLY FLOW, BLACKFOOT RIVER AT BONNER, MONTANA

DATE RETURN PERIOD DISCHARGE
YR.M.D (R = (n+1)/m) CFS
1964.06.10 55.0 19200
1953.06.04 27.5 18300
1975.06.20 18.3 18100
1948.05.22 13.8 16300
1972.06.02 11.0 15700
1976.05.15 9.2 14000
1954.05.21 7.9 13300
1947.05.09 6.9 12800
1981.05.24 6.1 12400
1959.06.07 5.5 12200
1956.05.22 5.0 12100
1971.05.14 4.6 12100
1967.06.03 4.2 11900
1974.06.17 3.9 11900
1951.05.13 3.7 11000
1970.05.27 3.4 10900
1979.05.27 3.2 10800
1989.05.11 3.1 10300
1961.05.27 2.9 10200
1982.06.17 2.8 10200
1957.05.21 2.6 10100
1965.06.13 2.5 9960
1943.06.18 2.4 9750
1950.06.21 2.3 9400
1991.05.20 2.2 9290
1958.05.23 2.1 9110
1980.05.27 2.0 9110
1949.05.16 2.0 8840
1952.04.29 1.9 8820
1962.05.25 1.8 8790
1978.06.09 1.8