Learner Outcomes - In performing these activities, you will:

• analyze Russian folk sayings about weather,
• compare meteorological data with the prediction obtained from popular weather proverbs.

Activity 1 - Discovering Russian Weather Proverbs

Step 1

In a library, find a collection of Russian popular sayings and weather signs. Choose the sayings that refer to weather phenomena. In case you can't find such a collection of sayings, refer to the following list that includes some of them.

If you come upon unfamiliar words in the weather proverbs listed above, you can either consult Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary or look at the original Russian variant of the proverbs and consult the online version of Dictionary of the Russian Language by S.I. Ozhegov and N.Yu. Shvedova, or online Russian-English Dictionary by A.S. Bagautdinov and V.A. Filatov.

Step 2

Classify the proverbs to facilitate your future work. For example, Russian popular proverbs can be divided into the following categories:

• Calendar proverbs - proverbs that connect weather phenomena and calendar. Among those are proverbs related to durable time intervals and to certain dates. For example, in the temperate climate of Russia people have noticed a weather pattern that repeats for many years: in the middle of February, March and May the temperature falls by a few degrees, regardless of the weather during preceding days. Another such long-term phenomenon is the Indian Summer (one or two weeks of warn and sunny weather in the middle of fall).

• Proverbs about how people feel - proverbs that connect weather phenomena to people's feelings (“if an old man's back aches, then bad weather is coming”).

• Proverbs about animals' behavior - for example, “If the bees don't fly to the field in the morning, but sit in the hive and make noise, expect rain soon”; “Swallows are flying low before rain”; “If the frogs jump on the ground and croak in the daytime, expect rain soon”.

• Proverbs about plants' behavior - “If clovers (Trifolium pratense) draw the leaves together and bend, expect bad weather"; "If dandelions shrink their balls, then rain is coming”.

• Proverbs about the Moon - proverbs that connect weather to the outlook or phases of the Moon. Proverbs of the first kind are usually quite reliable, because the Moon's outlook is connected to weather phenomena, such as clouds. Proverbs of the second type are doubtful, because the same Moon phases are observed at the same time in different parts of the world, but the weather in those places is different.

• Proverbs involving local criteria - there are various proverbs of this type, which are often quite reliable.

The weather proverbs from the above list were originally created a few centuries ago, when there were no modern instruments for weather observation and prediction. How do you think people came up with such proverbs?

Would you use such weather proverbs to predict weather? Why or why not?

Do you think these proverbs are reliable, i.e. how often do their predictions come true? Explain your reasoning. (In doing so, think of whether the two events given in the proverb are the cause and the consequence or they are just coincidental; differences in climate between your area and the area of the proverb's origin; etc.)

Step 4

On the Internet, try to find similar weather proverbs from other countries. Here are a few sites that you might check:

•     Weather Lore and Proverbs
•     Weather World Weather Folklore
•     Weather Proverbs
•     Weather Folktales

Will weather proverbs from one country work in another country? Why?

Activity 2 - Analyzing Weather Proverbs

Let us try to check if weather proverbs are correct. Choose the proverbs that are most interesting to you. You may work alone or in a group, if there are others who have chosen the same proverb. Below is an example of how you can analyze a weather proverb.

Step 1

Let's check the following proverb:

If it is warm in mid March, then the next summer will be warm. To check this proverb, you need to understand what the phrase "The next summer will be warm" means. To that extent, you'll need meteorological data for the last three to five years. You may be able to obtain such data from your local weather station.

Download the file meteo data and save it on the hard drive of your computer. (This file is in the Microsoft Excel format).

Step 2

Using the electronic tables, compute average temperatures from March 10 to March 20 in 1996, 1997 and 1998 (Tm1996, Tm1997, Tm1998). (To do that, add the average daily tempeature values for all days between March 10 and March 20 and divide the sum by the number of days, that is, by 10.)

Compute the overall average temperature (Tm_ave): add the averages for every year and divide the sum by the number of years.

Tm_ave=(Tm1996+ Tm1997+ Tm1998)/3

Now you know what the phrase "It's warm in mid March" means. Let's do the same for the phrase "warm summer".

Compute average summer temperatures in 1996, 1997 and 1998 (Ts1996, Ts1997, Ts1998). Then compute the overall average summer temperature according to the formula:

Ts_ave=( Ts1996+ Ts1997+ Ts1998)/3.

Step 3

Now you have data for several years and are able to precisely formulate the proverb you are checking. Now check the proverb using the data you've accumulated. Compare the real data with the predictions of the proverb. Make a conclusion about validity of the proverb. Do the real data support or contradict the conclusion of the proverb?

Check the validity of the proverb separately for every year.

For example, compare the average temperature from March 10 to March 20 in 1996 (Tm1996) with the overall average (Tm_ave) and the average summer temperature in 1996 (Ts1996) with the overall summer average (Ts_ave).

To facilitate analysis of results, construct histograms of spring and summer temperatures. Examples of such histograms are given below.



"Warm in mid March"
Temperature in mid March:
1996        1997      1998
-1,976     -0,193    -3,722




"Warm summer"
Average summer temperature:
1996        1997        1998
17,775     18,215     18,105
The overall summer temperature is 18,032^o Celsius.


Write down your conclusions, separately for every year.

Step 4

If the proverb turn out to be wrong, try to understand why it is wrong. For example, you live in a city, but the proverb originated in the countryside. Or the proverb first appeared far away from your place and was mistakenly extended to your area. There may be different reasons.

Activity 3 - Creating Your Own Weather Proverb

Step 1

Look through the weather reports for the last several months. You can either conduct your own observations to accumulate necessary data or obtain weather reports from the local meteo station. Notice any constant weather patterns, when one event is followed by another (for example, if the sun sets in the clouds on one day, it rains on the next day). Write down all such weather patterns that you've found.

Step 2

Among all the weather patterns that you've found in Step 1, choose the one that repeats most frequently. State this pattern in the form of a weather proverb. Discuss your proverb with your classmates. In the discussion, try to answer the following questions:

• Why is your proverb new? That is, why hasn't this weather pattern been noticed before? (Possible reasons include better weather observation equipment, weather data more readily available, etc.)
• Will your proverb work? Why?
• Would you use your own proverb to predict weather? How reliable do you think it is?

Analyze your own proverb similarly to what you did in Activity 2. Discuss your conclusions with your classmates and your teacher.
 

Topics for Discussion

Write a short essay about how weather proverbs are connected to predicting weather, how such proverbs first appeared, about the possibility of using them for predicting weather in your area. Discuss your essays and write a collective letter to your partners from another school. You may also exchange weather proverbs with your partners from other schools (maybe weather proverbs are different in different areas).

Discuss the letters from your partners. Make a discussion about whether it is possible to predict weather without modern equipment and technology.

Make a discussion about what physical and biological phenomena weather proverbs may be based upon.

Discuss validity of the proverbs included in your table. If they are wrong, try to understand if they were initially wrong or the weather situation in your area has changed. Consider the consequences of the growing influence of human activities (factories, transportation, etc) on the weather.

Concept Applications and Extensions

If some of you are interested in continuing this kind of work, here is what you can do. Among the weather proverbs, choose those that can be checked over a period of several years (for example, “If it is windy on St. Paul the Confessor Day (January 28), then the year ahead will be damp”, or “If it is raining on Samson's Day (July 10), then rain will continue for seven weeks”). Call your local weather station and obtain weather reports for the last 10 to 12 years. Check validity of the weather signs by comparing their predictions with the real weather. A decade-long set of observations reduces the role of a chance in your analysis. Include your results in the discussion materials and send them over the Internet to students from other schools.